The economic slowdown is expected to take a toll on the job sector as India could create at least 16 lakh fewer payrolls in FY20, SBI Ecowrap said. According to the EPFO data, while 89.7 lakh new payrolls were created in FY19, the number could dip to 15.8 lakh in FY20, the report added. “The prospect of lower payroll creation in Government indicates that the Government is not recruiting new payrolls in lieu of retiring Government employees,” SBI report also said. The government, state government, and private jobs are not part of the EPFO data cover low paid jobs with the salary capped at Rs 15,000 per month. This data has now been shifted to NPA starting 2004. “Even in the NPS category, State and Central Government are supposed to create close to 39,000 jobs less in FY20 as per current trends,” SBI report also noted.
The extent of formalisation has also dropped over the period. It is expected to fall further, implying that the GST collection may also not improve in the next few months as against the government’s expectations. So far in the nine months this fiscal, the gross GST collections have surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark only five times (April, May, July, November and December). The monthly average collection required to meet the budget target is Rs 1.14 lakh crore as per the recent directions given by Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey.
The report also finds a fall in remittances by migrant labourers to selected states in the previous year. “The remittance data shows a decline in remittances in states like Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Odisha & UP. It is possible that the delay in resolution cases under IBC may have prompted companies to downsize their contractual labourers,” SBI Ecowrap said. There is an urgent need to resolve the problems with the EPFO data, it added. The SBI recently lowered the economic growth forecast to 4.6 per cent from the earlier 5 per cent.